Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANA36057
MUG EN PORCELAINE BLANC AVEC DECO 325ML
longtail
3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
61
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 11
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-03-01
AAANA36057
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 0 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
MUG EN PORCELAINE BLANC AVEC DECO 325ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 61 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 10 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | — units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | — units |
| Optimistic — next week | — units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | — units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | — units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | — |