Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAANA28908
ASSOUPLISSANT CONCENTRÉ DOWNY VANILLE&MUSK 1L
longtail
1P + 3P
ENTRETIEN DU LINGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 62.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
49
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
9
≈ 13.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
AAANA28908
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ASSOUPLISSANT CONCENTRÉ DOWNY VANILLE&MUSK 1L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -62.5% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (602 days of history, 52 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |