Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMX35432
Tapis de douche - GENERIC - Rectangle 70x40cm - Beige - Fibre - Absorbant
longtail
1P + 3P
LINGE DE TOILETTE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▲ 160.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
55
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
5
≈ 5.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-11
AAAMX35432
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 49 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis de douche - GENERIC - Rectangle 70x40cm - Beige - Fibre - Absorbant · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending up +160.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (644 days of history, 72 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 3.1 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 49.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |