Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMW11974
Trottinette 3 Roues "Premier Pas" – Évolutive & Stable – Idéale pour l'Apprentissage – 2 à 5 ans
longtail
3P
VEHICULE POUR ENFANT
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
51
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 117
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAMW11974
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Trottinette 3 Roues "Premier Pas" – Évolutive & Stable – Idéale pour l'Apprentissage – 2 à 5 ans · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 32 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.5K |