Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMV76482
Moustiquaire - Air Frais - Magnétique - 150 x 180 cm - Installation sans perçage - Protection efficace
longtail
3P
RIDEAU - STORE - ACCESSOIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-50.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
15
≈ 10.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 68
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAMV76482
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 118 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Moustiquaire - Air Frais - Magnétique - 150 x 180 cm - Installation sans perçage - Protection efficace · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (539 days of history, 92 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.28 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 30.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 117.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.0K |