Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMT36064
Parfum Avon Incandessence - Eau de Parfum - 30 ml
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
183
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 54
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAMT36064
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 53 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Parfum Avon Incandessence - Eau de Parfum - 30 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 183 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (574 days of history, 34 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.52 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 52.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |