Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMT35332
Horloge Murale - HOME DECO FACTORY - Studio Black Gold - Silencieuse - Rond - D25 cm - Motif Aléatoire
longtail
3P
HORLOGE - REVEIL
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
23
≈ 12.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
AAAMT35332
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 225 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Horloge Murale - HOME DECO FACTORY - Studio Black Gold - Silencieuse - Rond - D25 cm - Motif Aléatoire · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (546 days of history, 142 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.35 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 47.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 224.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.6K |