Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS50504
Uno - jeu de cartes famille - uno flip side
longtail
3P
JEUX DE SOCIETE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 82.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
949
≈ 408.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAAMS50504
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Uno - jeu de cartes famille - uno flip side · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -82.6% · on-hand 949 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (553 days of history, 143 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 39.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |