Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS50441
Tapis d’Eau Gonflable pour Bébé et Enfant – Jeu d’Éveil - 66 × 50 cm
longtail
3P
JOUET PREMIER AGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▲ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
51
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 36
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAMS50441
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis d’Eau Gonflable pour Bébé et Enfant – Jeu d’Éveil - 66 × 50 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending up +14.3% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 58 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.61 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.5K |