Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS50441
Tapis d’Eau Gonflable pour Bébé et Enfant – Jeu d’Éveil - 66 × 50 cm
longtail
3P
JOUET PREMIER AGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
27
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-10-07
AAAMS50441
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 88 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis d’Eau Gonflable pour Bébé et Enfant – Jeu d’Éveil - 66 × 50 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 27 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 80 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.61 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 88.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |