Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAMS50092
Tapis de jeu musical pour bébé — piano lumineux & hochets suspendus
longtail
3P
MONDE MINIATURE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 9.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+900.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
52
≈ 39.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 116
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAMS50092
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis de jeu musical pour bébé — piano lumineux & hochets suspendus · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -9.1% · on-hand 52 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (574 days of history, 100 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.53 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.2K |