Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAMS50054
Tapis d'eau pour bébé : stimulez le développement sensoriel
midtail
3P
JOUET PREMIER AGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 27.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-78.9%
vs same 4w last year (38 units)
Current stock
3,931
≈ 943.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAMS50054
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 134 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis d'eau pour bébé : stimulez le développement sensoriel · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -27.3% · on-hand 3931 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (539 days of history, 133 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 134.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.1K |