Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS50036
Tapis de Jeu d'Eau pour Bébé, pour stimuler le développement sensoriel
longtail
3P
JOUET PREMIER AGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
555
≈ 420.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAMS50036
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 73 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Tapis de Jeu d'Eau pour Bébé, pour stimuler le développement sensoriel · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 555 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 84 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 73.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.0K |