Demand Forecast
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SKU · AAAMS49966
Cartes Flash Parlantes – Jouet Éducatif d’Apprentissage des Mots – 224 Mots avec Prononciation Américaine Standard
longtail
3P
JEUX DE SOCIETE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
61
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-14 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 50
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-17
AAAMS49966
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 56 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cartes Flash Parlantes – Jouet Éducatif d’Apprentissage des Mots – 224 Mots avec Prononciation Américaine Standard · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 61 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (322 days of history, 78 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 55.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.8K |