Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS05724
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L
midtail
3P
AMENAGEMENT EXTERIEUR - DU JARDIN
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 63.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
4
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAAMS05724
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -63.2% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (609 days of history, 359 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.82 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 38 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 70.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 144.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.8K |