Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS05724
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L
midtail
3P
MATERIAU GROS OEUVRE
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+400.0%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
4
≈ 0.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAMS05724
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 190 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (553 days of history, 320 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.84 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 50 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 26.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 77.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 66.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 189.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.2K |