Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMS05724
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L
midtail
3P
AMENAGEMENT EXTERIEUR - DU JARDIN
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▼ 9.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAAMS05724
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 231 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
PERLITE SMART GARDEN 4L · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending down -9.7% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (672 days of history, 410 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 31 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 48.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 23.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 94.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 230.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.0K |