Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMQ31406
Pèse-bagages de voyage 50kg avec mètre ruban
longtail
3P
ACCESSOIRES BAGAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 41.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
55
≈ 41.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAMQ31406
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 69 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pèse-bagages de voyage 50kg avec mètre ruban · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -41.2% · on-hand 55 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (574 days of history, 93 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 24.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.3K |