Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMQ25235
Huile capillaire - Balea - Oil Repair - 100 ml - Cheveux abîmés - Hydratant
midtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
30
▼ 47.4% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+500.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
36
≈ 8.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 34
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAMQ25235
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 203 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Huile capillaire - Balea - Oil Repair - 100 ml - Cheveux abîmés - Hydratant · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 30 units, trending down -47.4% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (567 days of history, 343 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 30 units · prev 4w = 57 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 13.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 39.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 82.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 24.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 83.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 203.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.9K |