Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMI98474
Lot de soins pour le visage - Garnier - Fast Clear - Eau micellaire 400ml - Gel Wash - -25%
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
▼ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-100.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
6
≈ 7.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 87
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-01
AAAMI98474
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lot de soins pour le visage - Garnier - Fast Clear - Eau micellaire 400ml - Gel Wash - -25% · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, trending down -100.0% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (511 days of history, 12 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 13.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.5K |