Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMG79697
CREME FAIRNESS AU SAFFRON HIMALAYA 50G
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
50
Σ Stock across 3 live offers
1P stock
30
≈ 44.6 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 18
avg of last 24 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAAMG79697
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 75 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CREME FAIRNESS AU SAFFRON HIMALAYA 50G · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 30 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (525 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 75.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |