Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMG79201
NIVEA - LAIT CORPS BEURRE DE CACAO 250ML
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
110
Σ Stock across 7 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
6
≈ 5.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
AAAMG79201
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
NIVEA - LAIT CORPS BEURRE DE CACAO 250ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (560 days of history, 59 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 10.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 36.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.4K |