Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMG43083
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles
hero
3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 6.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
702
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-21
AAAMG43083
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 712 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -6.2% · on-hand 1702 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (672 days of history, 815 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 211.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 19.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 16.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 86.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 711.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.0K |