Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMG43083
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles
hero
3P
COIFFURE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
768
≈ 75.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-20
AAAMG43083
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 348 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma Roller - GENERIC - 0.5 mm - Stimule Repousse Cheveux - Pousse Barbe - 540 Aiguilles · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 768 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (560 days of history, 789 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 9.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 41.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 111.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 127.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 348.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.1K |