Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMF75644
DOWNY-ASSOUPLISSANT CONCENTRÉ VALLEY DEW 1L
longtail
3P
ENTRETIEN DU LINGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
48
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
56
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 1.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 22 sells · latest 2026-07-31
AAAMF75644
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 186 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DOWNY-ASSOUPLISSANT CONCENTRÉ VALLEY DEW 1L · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 48 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (532 days of history, 70 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.57 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 48 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 22.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 72.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 60.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 186.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.8K |