Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAME23639
Eau de Parfum - ORIFLAME - Amber Elixir - 50 ml - Femme - Oriental Ambré Gourmand
longtail
3P
PARFUM
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-62.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 10.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 144
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAAME23639
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 68 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eau de Parfum - ORIFLAME - Amber Elixir - 50 ml - Femme - Oriental Ambré Gourmand · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (581 days of history, 117 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 25.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 68.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.8K |