Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAMB25782
Désodorisant en aérosol fleur d'oranger 450ml - SENTAL
longtail
1P
PRODUIT D'ENTRETIEN
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
135
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
48
≈ 142.3 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 20
avg of last 21 sells · latest 2026-04-27
AAAMB25782
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Désodorisant en aérosol fleur d'oranger 450ml - SENTAL · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 48 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (539 days of history, 24 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 69.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |