Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALZ77496
Protect2 Gels Lubrifiant Nature 100ml X 2
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 41.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
151
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 36
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAALZ77496
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 149 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Protect2 Gels Lubrifiant Nature 100ml X 2 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -41.7% · on-hand 154 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (637 days of history, 163 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 18.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 148.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.4K |