Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALZ77477
Protect Gel Lubrifiant Fruits 100 ml
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-33.3%
vs same 4w last year (12 units)
Current stock
110
≈ 32.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAALZ77477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 129 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Protect Gel Lubrifiant Fruits 100 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 110 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (588 days of history, 218 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 38.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |