Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALY31413
TAPIS D'ENTREE 40*60CM - Couleur aléatoire
longtail
1P + 3P
DECORATION DU SOL
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
11
≈ 27.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 50
avg of last 17 sells · latest 2026-10-07
AAALY31413
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-12 · Total forecast: 39 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TAPIS D'ENTREE 40*60CM - Couleur aléatoire · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (357 days of history, 20 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.46 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 10.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 39.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 0.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.9K |