Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALY23140
DENWA - DUAL AIR FRYER 3L+6L = 9L 2850W AF324AC
longtail
1P + 3P
PETIT APPAREIL DE CUISSON
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▲ 120.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
53
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
3
≈ 6.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 764
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAALY23140
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 94 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
DENWA - DUAL AIR FRYER 3L+6L = 9L 2850W AF324AC · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending up +120.0% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (693 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 2.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 71.4K |