Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALY21726
Friteuse à air chaud - DENWA - AF324BC - 8L - 1800W - Multifonctionnelle
longtail
1P + 3P
PETIT APPAREIL DE CUISSON
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 6.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
45
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
15
≈ 6.8 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 659
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-01
AAALY21726
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 122 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Friteuse à air chaud - DENWA - AF324BC - 8L - 1800W - Multifonctionnelle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -6.7% · on-hand 15 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (644 days of history, 186 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.74 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 15 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 63.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 80.2K |