Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALY21726
Friteuse à air chaud - DENWA - AF324BC - 8L - 1800W - Multifonctionnelle
longtail
1P
PETIT APPAREIL DE CUISSON
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 75.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+800.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
46
≈ 22.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 587
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAALY21726
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 166 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Friteuse à air chaud - DENWA - AF324BC - 8L - 1800W - Multifonctionnelle · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -75.7% · on-hand 46 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (581 days of history, 157 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.85 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 37 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 10.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 32.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 61.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 17.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 68.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 165.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 97.3K |