Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALX90318
Durex Performax Intense – 10 Préservatifs à effets stimulants et retardants
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
44
▲ 10.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+131.6%
vs same 4w last year (19 units)
Current stock
507
≈ 131.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 61
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAALX90318
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 201 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Durex Performax Intense – 10 Préservatifs à effets stimulants et retardants · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 44 units, trending up +10.0% · on-hand 507 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (595 days of history, 287 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 44 units · prev 4w = 40 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 7.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 29.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 68.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 19.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 80.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 200.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 5.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.2K |