Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALX77835
Magic remover vernis gel soak-off 15ml
longtail
3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
18
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 76
avg of last 22 sells · latest 2025-08-08
AAALX77835
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Magic remover vernis gel soak-off 15ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 18 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (518 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.18 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 61.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |