Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALX69147
cuillère en bois d’acacia 41*9,5cm
longtail
1P
USTENSILES DE CUISINE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
124
Σ Stock across 4 live offers
1P stock
41
≈ 157.2 weeks of cover · latest warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 29
avg of last 14 sells · latest 2026-02-20
AAALX69147
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 51 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
cuillère en bois d’acacia 41*9,5cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 41 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (497 days of history, 16 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.83 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |