Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALX18416
Lampe Projecteur solaire avec Télécommande solaire à LED + détecteur de mouvement
longtail
3P
LUMINAIRE D'EXTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+200.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
158
≈ 131.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 37
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-08
AAALX18416
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lampe Projecteur solaire avec Télécommande solaire à LED + détecteur de mouvement · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -25.0% · on-hand 158 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (553 days of history, 87 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 22.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.6K |