Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALV80477
Pack De 03 Paquet De 12 Préservatifs PROTECT NATURE ( 36 PRESERVATIFS )
longtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 92.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
Σ Stock across 1 live offer
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 45
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
AAALV80477
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack De 03 Paquet De 12 Préservatifs PROTECT NATURE ( 36 PRESERVATIFS ) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -92.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (574 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.64 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.2K |