Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALT77438
Réchaud à Gaz 4 feux - MGS - Gris - Puissant - Contrôle de chaleur facile - Idéal pour événements
longtail
3P
CAMPING - CAMP DE BASE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 6.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+650.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
54
≈ 37.1 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 344
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAALT77438
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Réchaud à Gaz 4 feux - MGS - Gris - Puissant - Contrôle de chaleur facile - Idéal pour événements · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -6.2% · on-hand 54 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (469 days of history, 94 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.01 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.1K |