Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALR13568-0001
Casquette - New Era - Red Bull Racing - Marine - 100% Polyester - Sportswear
longtail
3P
ACCESSOIRE MODE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 224
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-23
AAALR13568-0001
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 152 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Casquette - New Era - Red Bull Racing - Marine - 100% Polyester - Sportswear · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (483 days of history, 24 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 70.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 152.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 34.0K |