Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALQ96414
Pack Gel Douche - MARQUE - Repair - 600 ML - Lotion - 400 ML - Hydratante
hero
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 98.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
53
≈ 4.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 92
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAALQ96414
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 446 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Pack Gel Douche - MARQUE - Repair - 600 ML - Lotion - 400 ML - Hydratante · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -98.1% · on-hand 53 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (609 days of history, 908 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.04 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 106 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 45.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 16.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 150.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 445.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 40.8K |