Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALJ71604
Maybelline New York Lash Sensational Sky High Noir - Mascara Longueur = Tattoo Liner 900 DEEP ONYX
midtail
1P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 16.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
26
≈ 6.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 108
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAALJ71604
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 202 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Maybelline New York Lash Sensational Sky High Noir - Mascara Longueur = Tattoo Liner 900 DEEP ONYX · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +16.7% · on-hand 26 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (616 days of history, 22 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 10.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 37.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 53.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 201.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 21.8K |