Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALJ67885
Sac à Dos Ordinateur Portable (15.6" / 17") - Imperméable & Antivol - Grand Volume pour Travail, Voyage et Quotidien - Noir
longtail
3P
BUSINESS
Last 4 weeks demand
2
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
9
≈ 6.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 152
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-16
AAALJ67885
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 60 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sac à Dos Ordinateur Portable (15.6" / 17") - Imperméable & Antivol - Grand Volume pour Travail, Voyage et Quotidien - Noir · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, stable demand · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (595 days of history, 93 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 6.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 20.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 4.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 18.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 59.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.0K |