Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALJ49031
Aer Pochette Parfumée Puissante Délice Citron Acidulé 10g
longtail
3P
PRODUIT D'ENTRETIEN
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 91.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
98
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 19
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-24
AAALJ49031
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 161 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Aer Pochette Parfumée Puissante Délice Citron Acidulé 10g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -91.3% · on-hand 96 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (651 days of history, 76 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.89 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 161.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.0K |