Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI81166
La Roche-Posay - Gel Moussant Effaclar - 400ml - Peaux Grasses - Acnéique - Recharge
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
24
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
270
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
9
≈ 2.7 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 158
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAALI81166
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 175 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
La Roche-Posay - Gel Moussant Effaclar - 400ml - Peaux Grasses - Acnéique - Recharge · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, stable demand · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (665 days of history, 260 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 24 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 11.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 31.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 89.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 18.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 174.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 27.6K |