Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI75794
Spray solaire - SOFRESH - Kids - SPF 50+ - 200 ml - Résistant à l'eau
longtail
1P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 14.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
—
not enough history (need 56+ weeks)
Current stock
3
≈ 2.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 72
avg of last 29 sells · latest 2026-05-04
AAALI75794
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Spray solaire - SOFRESH - Kids - SPF 50+ - 200 ml - Résistant à l'eau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -14.3% · on-hand 3 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (385 days of history, 73 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.86 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 27.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 110.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.9K |