Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI75794
Spray solaire - SOFRESH - Kids - SPF 50+ - 200 ml - Résistant à l'eau
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 85.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
93
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 60
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-28
AAALI75794
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 133 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Spray solaire - SOFRESH - Kids - SPF 50+ - 200 ml - Résistant à l'eau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -85.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (441 days of history, 44 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.64 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 61.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 132.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.9K |