Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI75791
SOFRESH, CREME SOLAIRE SPF 50+ , 50 ML
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
1
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
318
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
23
≈ 19.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 41
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-19
AAALI75791
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 21 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SOFRESH, CREME SOLAIRE SPF 50+ , 50 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, stable demand · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (721 days of history, 31 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 1 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 20.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 847 |