Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI75789
SOFRESH, SUNCARE SPRAY SPF 50+, 200ML
longtail
1P + 3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 200.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
187
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
8
≈ 9.2 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 81
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2026-08-02
AAALI75789
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
SOFRESH, SUNCARE SPRAY SPF 50+, 200ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +200.0% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (532 days of history, 20 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.59 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 14.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 59.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.3K |