Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALI50674
Ring Light 26 cm – Trépied Extensible 210 cm, 240 LEDs, Température 3200K–5600K Réglable
longtail
3P
VIDEOPROJECTION
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 61.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+150.0%
vs same 4w last year (2 units)
Current stock
48
≈ 24.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 115
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
AAALI50674
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ring Light 26 cm – Trépied Extensible 210 cm, 240 LEDs, Température 3200K–5600K Réglable · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -61.5% · on-hand 48 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (616 days of history, 138 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 44.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 45.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 14.8K |