Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALH27821
BOITE A BIJOUX OVALE 3 NIVEAUX CUIR 2684-2A
longtail
1P + 3P
BIJOUX
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
19
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-27
1P stock
1
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-27
Unit price
MAD 65
avg of last 11 sells · latest 2026-10-20
AAALH27821
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-19 · Total forecast: 99 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
BOITE A BIJOUX OVALE 3 NIVEAUX CUIR 2684-2A · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -40.0% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (147 days of history, 11 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.29 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.2 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 99.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.5K |