Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALH27809
Bac à Glaçons Hobbylife - Couleur Aléatoire
longtail
3P
SERVICE APERITIF - OENOLOGIE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
10
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
AAALH27809
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 89 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bac à Glaçons Hobbylife - Couleur Aléatoire · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (693 days of history, 87 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 22.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 88.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.4K |