Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALH27803
AMPOULE LED 9W E27 LB0323A
longtail
3P
LUMINAIRE D'INTERIEUR
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
335
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 5
avg of last 12 sells · latest 2026-09-28
AAALH27803
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 17 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
AMPOULE LED 9W E27 LB0323A · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 299 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (483 days of history, 18 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 17.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 81 |