Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALG58623
Fluide Hydratant - REVOX - B77 - Acide Hyaluronique 3% - 30ML - Tous types de peau
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▲ 233.3% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+66.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
96
≈ 56.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 69
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAALG58623
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Fluide Hydratant - REVOX - B77 - Acide Hyaluronique 3% - 30ML - Tous types de peau · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending up +233.3% · on-hand 96 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (616 days of history, 111 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 20.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.2K |