Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAALG07598
Déguisement SPIDER MAN - MARQUE - 3 pièces - Lavable - Tailles S, M, L - Enfant Mixte
longtail
3P
DEGUISEMENT - SPECTACLE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 56
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-03
AAALG07598
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 52 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déguisement SPIDER MAN - MARQUE - 3 pièces - Lavable - Tailles S, M, L - Enfant Mixte · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (672 days of history, 35 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.48 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 23.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 12.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 51.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.9K |