Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · AAAKI53979
Sac à dos - GENERIC - Classique - Imperméable - Résistant à l'usure - Interface USB
midtail
3P
BUSINESS
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+9.1%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
16
≈ 4.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 121
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
AAAKI53979
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Sac à dos - GENERIC - Classique - Imperméable - Résistant à l'usure - Interface USB · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 16 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (637 days of history, 238 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 30 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 6.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 23.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 57.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 13.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 54.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 150.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 18.2K |